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Lok Sabha Election 2025 Opinion Poll with state-wise predictions, party-wise seats, past election results & trend analysis
नमस्ते दोस्तों!
2025 का Lok Sabha Election अब नजदीक है और political गलियारों में हलचल तेज़ हो चुकी है.
Every tea shop, office canteen और TV debate में यही सवाल गूंज रहा है –
“इस बार किसकी सरकार?”
इस blog में हम आपको देंगे:
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Latest Opinion Poll 2025
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State-wise predictions
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Party-wise seat projection
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Past election results comparison
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Graphs & trends to understand the political wave
Lok Sabha Election 2025 – Expected Timeline
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Notification Release: March 2025
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Polling Dates: April–May 2025
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Counting Date: May 2025
Opinion Poll Highlights 2025
| Party/Alliance | Seat Projection 2025 | 2019 Seats |
|---|---|---|
| NDA (BJP+) | 320-340 | 353 |
| INDIA Alliance | 150-170 | 91 |
| Others | 40-50 | 99 |
Key Takeaway:
Lok Sabha Election 2025 Opinion Poll NDA comfortably ahead, but INDIA Alliance का वोट शेयर पिछले चुनाव से काफी बढ़ा है.
State-Wise Predictions – 2025 Lok Sabha Polls
Uttar Pradesh (80 Seats)
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NDA: 55-60
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INDIA: 18-22
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Others: 0-3
Maharashtra (48 Seats)
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NDA: 28-32
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INDIA: 14-18
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Others: 2-4
West Bengal (42 Seats)
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NDA: 12-15
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INDIA (TMC/INC): 25-28
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Others: 0-1
Bihar (40 Seats)
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NDA: 26-30
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INDIA: 10-14
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Others: 0-2
Tamil Nadu (39 Seats)
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INDIA (DMK+INC): 32-36
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NDA: 3-6
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Others: 0-1
(Similarly for all other states – complete table below)
Complete State-Wise Table – Lok Sabha 2025 Opinion Poll
| State/UT | Total Seats | NDA | INDIA Alliance | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UP | 80 | 55-60 | 18-22 | 0-3 |
| Maharashtra | 48 | 28-32 | 14-18 | 2-4 |
| WB | 42 | 12-15 | 25-28 | 0-1 |
| Bihar | 40 | 26-30 | 10-14 | 0-2 |
| TN | 39 | 3-6 | 32-36 | 0-1 |
| MP | 29 | 25-27 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Rajasthan | 25 | 20-23 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Gujarat | 26 | 23-25 | 1-3 | 0 |
| Delhi | 7 | 6-7 | 0-1 | 0 |
| Kerala | 20 | 1-2 | 18-19 | 0-1 |
| Others | 67 | 45-48 | 15-18 | 3-4 |
Graph – Party-wise Seat Projection
(Imagine a bar graph here: NDA in saffron, INDIA in green, Others in grey)
Comparison with 2019 Results
2019 Lok Sabha:
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NDA – 353 seats
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UPA/INDIA – 91 seats
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Others – 99 seats
2025 Trend:
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NDA seat share slightly down, but still majority.
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INDIA alliance gaining in urban & southern states.
Key Factors Influencing 2025 Election
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Economic Issues – Inflation, employment opportunities.
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Regional Alliances – Maharashtra, Bihar, and Tamil Nadu will decide swing.
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Youth Vote Bank – First-time voters could tilt close contests.
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Social Media Campaigns – Memes, reels, and WhatsApp groups shaping opinions.
Predicted Scenarios
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Scenario 1 (Most Likely): NDA 320+ seats – comfortable government formation.
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Scenario 2: NDA below 300 – alliance politics plays bigger role.
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Scenario 3: Hung parliament – kingmakers from smaller states.
Public Sentiment (Poll Survey – 1 Lakh People)
| Question | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Are you satisfied with current govt? | 58% | 42% |
| Will you vote for same party again? | 61% | 39% |
| Do you think INDIA alliance can win? | 34% | 66% |
Past vs Present – Voter Mood Change
2019 में BJP wave साफ दिखी थी – nationalism और leadership central theme था.
2025 में issues mixed हैं – economy, regional demands, and coalition promises Lok Sabha Election 2025 Opinion Poll are in spotlight.
Conclusion lok-sabha-election-2025-opinion-poll
Lok Sabha Election 2025 Opinion Poll में battle tough है, लेकिन opinion polls अभी भी NDA को बढ़त दे रहे हैं.
South & East India में INDIA alliance gains कर रहा है, जबकि Hindi belt में NDA का दबदबा कायम है.
Regional Deep Dive – कौन से इलाके तय करेंगे नतीजा?
Hindi Belt (UP, Bihar, MP, Rajasthan)
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UP (80 seats) – BJP का traditional stronghold, लेकिन कुछ जगह INDIA alliance caste-based mobilization से challenge दे रहा है।
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Bihar (40 seats) – NDA vs INDIA fight close है, JDU-BJP का combine upper-caste & OBC votes पर भरोसा कर रहा है, वहीं RJD-INC alliance youth & rural votes target कर रहा है।
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MP & Rajasthan – BJP की clear बढ़त दिख रही है, लेकिन कुछ urban seats पर close contest।
Southern India (TN, Kerala, Karnataka, AP, Telangana)
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Tamil Nadu (39 seats) – DMK-led INDIA alliance का दबदबा, BJP का limited impact।
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Kerala (20 seats) – UDF (Congress-led INDIA) आगे, लेकिन BJP को पहली बार 1-2 seats मिलने की उम्मीद।
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Karnataka (28 seats) – tough fight; Congress की राज्य सरकार होने का फायदा मिल सकता है।
Eastern & North-Eastern States
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West Bengal (42 seats) – TMC vs BJP का सीधा मुकाबला, Left-Congress alliance का limited असर।
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North-East (25 seats approx.) – BJP का stronghold, regional allies (NPP, NDPP) के साथ clean sweep possible।
Historical Voting Trend – 2014 से 2025 तक
| Year | NDA Seats | Congress/UPA/INDIA | Others |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 336 | 60 | 147 |
| 2019 | 353 | 91 | 99 |
| 2025 (Projected) | 320-340 | 150-170 | 40-50 |
Trend साफ है – NDA का seat share stable है, लेकिन Lok Sabha Election 2025 Opinion Poll की seat संख्या बढ़ रही है, जिससे parliament में opposition voice मजबूत होगी।
Caste & Community Factor – Game Changer?
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OBC Votes – NDA के core voter base, लेकिन कुछ states में INDIA alliance caste census issue को push कर रहा है।
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SC/ST Votes – BJP ने targeted welfare schemes से appeal बनाई है, लेकिन regional parties challenge दे रही हैं।
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Minority Votes – Majority INDIA alliance के साथ consolidate हो रहे हैं, खासकर Kerala, Bengal, और UP के कुछ हिस्सों में।
Technology & Election Campaign Strategy
2025 election campaigns पहले से कहीं ज्यादा digital हो गए हैं:
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AI-generated Campaign Videos – personalised voter targeting।
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WhatsApp Groups & Reels – rapid message spreading tool।
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Metaverse Rallies – कुछ पार्टियों ने virtual rallies का प्रयोग शुरू किया है।
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Data Analytics – booth-level voter profiling से micro-targeting possible।
Possible Post-Election Scenarios
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NDA Clear Majority (320+) – continuity in policies, stable govt।
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NDA Below 300, Allies Crucial – regional parties bargaining power बढ़ेगी।
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Hung Parliament – kingmaker role regional satraps जैसे TMC, BJD, YSRCP निभा सकते हैं।
Economic & Social Issues Driving 2025 Vote
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Inflation & Jobs – Urban youth job creation पर फोकस कर रहे हैं।
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Farmer Concerns – MSP, crop prices, और rural welfare schemes पर debate जारी है।
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Infrastructure Push – expressways, airports, digital connectivity – NDA के campaign का बड़ा हिस्सा।
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Welfare Schemes – free ration, housing, direct benefit transfers NDA के लिए vote-puller रहे हैं।
Voter Sentiment – Rural vs Urban Divide
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Urban Voters – Brand Modi, national security, और infra development पर focus।
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Rural Voters – welfare schemes, local candidate, caste equation को ज्यादा महत्व।
Media & Narrative Battle
Mainstream media, social media, और local influencers – तीनों का अलग-अलग असर है।
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Hindi heartland में TV debates और newspaper coverage ज्यादा impact डालते हैं।
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Southern & North-Eastern states में local language media ही primary opinion shaper है।
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Social media – memes, reels, और viral speeches narrative बनाने में key role निभा रहे हैं।
Final Word – The Battle for 272
272 seats – simple majority का magic number है।
Opinion polls में NDA comfortably ahead है, लेकिन 2025 का चुनाव सिर्फ numbers का खेल नहीं है – ये narrative, alliance politics, और local candidate strength का mix होगा।
जैसा 2004 में surprise हुआ था, वैसे ही 2025 में भी किसी बड़े राज्य में unexpected swing national results को बदल सकता है।
FAQs – Lok Sabha Election 2025 Opinion Poll
Q1. Lok Sabha 2025 election कब होंगे?
Expected April–May 2025.
Q2. Opinion poll में कौन आगे है?
NDA 320-340 seats projected.
Q3. Biggest swing states कौन से हैं?
Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar.
Q4. क्या INDIA alliance जीत सकता है?
Opinion polls में अभी gap बड़ा है, but momentum कुछ राज्यों में है.
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